I’ve been thinking a lot lately about the Kindle and iPad and what the latter’s introduction into the marketplace will do to the former. I talked about it a little bit in my post when the iPad was introduced, and in the comments section there. There is some understandable defensiveness from those who have purchased a Kindle or Nook or are planning to do so about my assertion that “I really don’t expect either of those devices to exist for more than a couple of years at this point. Apple is simply too good with content delivery.” For Kindle and Nook fans, those are fighting words!

I want to be clear that I’m not rooting against dedicated eReaders — I’m very much technology agnostic. I go for whatever’s best for me (as do we all). I don’t like e-ink, I want backlighting, and I want a multipurpose device. Ergo, a dedicated eReader as they currently exist is out. I also think the software on the Kindle’s I’ve played with (I haven’t used a Nook yet) is clunky and awkward and far too inelegant for my taste. But for many of people it’s become a great way to read books, and I’m certainly not ever against that.

Here’s what I am pretty sure of: the iPad (or similar multi-purpose devices with e-reading as a feature set) will do two things: 1) force the price of dedicated eReaders way down the pricing curve, and 2) relegate them into niche status.

The Kindle and Nook fans disagree. So what basis do I have for this assertion that multi-purpose devices crowd out single-purpose devices?

The cell phone.

Cell phones were originally portable phones and nothing more; a way to roam free from the landlines that had everyone stretching curled cords throughout their houses in order to move around while talking. Mobility was just a dream — that’s why pay phones were ubiquitous. If you were in a public place, you had to use a pay phone.

But over time, more and more functionality was added to cell phones. I thought texting was idiotic when I first heard about it. Why the hell would you want to type on such a small thing when you can just call the goddamn person?! But now I text more than I use the actual telephony portion of my phone. I have friends whose teenage kids make ten to twenty thousand texts per month. (Yes, they all have unlimited texting plans). It’s now their primary method of communication. Telephony is now a secondary product on a phone.

We now have cameras on phones. Quality’s not the best, but you don’t need to carry a digital camera if you don’t want to. Sure, a digital camera (or, heaven forbid, actual film camera) can take better pictures than a cell phone camera, but there’s a convenience factor that’s hard to ignore. Snap a photo and with a few clicks you can text it to your friends or Flickr or Facebook wall, or all three.

Over time, more and more functionality crept into our phones. Web browsing, email access, GPS, video recording, and yes, ebook reading. They evolved into multi-function devices. Single purpose cell phones are pretty much extinct. Even the most basic, no-frills phones still come with texting and cameras. You have to look pretty hard to find phones that don’t have these features.

I expect those same pressures to come to bear on dedicated ebook readers. Either they’re going to have to add functionality and spin up into devices similar to the iPad, or they’ll have to become so cheap that they’re almost a throwaway purchase, probably $20 or so. Without one of those scenarios happening, I just don’t see their long term viability.